Tuesday, July 29, 2014

The Astros Process: 2015 Season Preview

Spring Training's over and the season is set to start.

The Top 100 Prospect list has been released, and the Astros have the following players on the list:

10. Carlos Correa (1st round pick, 2012)
13. Jake Godfrey (2nd round pick, 2014)
17. Brady Aiken (1st round pick, 2014)
53. Mike Foltynewicz (1st round, 2010)

A bit interesting that Appel isn't listed.

Here's our starting 25 for Opening Day

SP1 - Jarred Cosart
SP2 - Brad Peacock
SP3 - Dallas Keuchel
SP4 - Lucas Harrell
SP5 - Brett Oberholtzer

MR - Josh Zeid
MR - Scott Feldman
MR - Kevin Chapman
MR - Cory Knebel
SU - Josh Fields
SU - Matt Albers
CL - Chad Qualls

C - Jason Castro
1B - Justin Smoak
2B - Jose Altuve
SS - Jonathan Villar
3B - Joey Terdoslavich
LF - Martin Prado
CF - Dexter Fowler
RF - George Springer
DH - Marc Krauss

Bench - Matt Dominguez
Bench - Robbie Grossman
Bench - Max Stassi
Bench - Marwin Gonzalez

Given this lineup, Jim Crane says we should play around .500 ball.

Monday, July 28, 2014

The Astros Process: 2014 Offseason News and Transactions

Sept. 29

Kevin Comer was named Midwest League Pitcher of the Year for Quad Cities. He was 13-7 on the year with a 2.18 ERA. His teammate Josh Hader finished second in the voting.

Oct. 8

The Greg Burke saga has come to a conclusion, as the former Rockies pitcher was convicted of fraud and sentenced to five years in prison.

Oct. 17

Telvin Nash has announced his retirement following a serious of setbacks while recovering from a broken kneecap suffered the day before he was named to the Texas League All-Star team back in June.

Oct. 26

Seattle beat Washington in game 7 to win the World Series.

Oct. 27

Brent Strom has retired. Gee, thanks for sticking it out for one whole season there, Brent.

It was announced today that the rules committee has changed the length of the standard disabled list trip to 19 days. I expect this will force some tougher decisions when players have lingering day-to-day injuries.

In what I can only assume is a salary dump, Seattle trades me Justin Smoak, who is due a healthy raise in arbitration coming off a 27 HR, .294 BA season, for Anthony Bass. I'll figure out what to do with Singleton (probably DH) later; I can't turn this down.

I also traded Chris Carter to Miami for Brian Flynn, a big, young lefty groundball pitcher with the potential to stick as a starter.

Nov. 4

In a coup, Bo Porter was able to lure Tony La Russa out of retirement to be his bench coach.

Nov. 21

In preparation for the Rule 5 draft, after starting with four open spots, I removed Luis Cruz, Paul Clemens, Darin Downs, David Martinez, and Gregorio Petit from the 40 man to make room for Folty, Chia-Jen Lo, Alex Sogard, Jio Mier, Carlos Perez, Austin Wates, Domingo Santana, Jason Stoffel and DDJ. I'm obviously not planning on adding anyone through the Rule 5 this year.

Dec. 2

First day of free agency: Hanley Ramirez signs a 2 year/$20M deal with Boston. Pablo Sandoval signs with the Dodgers.

Dec. 14

To bolster my infield depth I traded Jose Cisnero to Atlanta for Joey Terdoslavich. I have a ton of pitchers just like Cisnero, so even if this doesn't work I haven't given up much. This move also allows me to use Prado more in the OF, eliminating the need for a veteran to help shore up that part of the roster.

Dec. 16

Cleveland 3B Carlos Santana was suspended for 80 games for violating the league's anti-drug policy. I'm not aware of any previous violations, so he must have done something pretty bad.

Dec. 26

The Red Sox continued their pursuit to purchase a title, signing Max Scherzer to a 6 year, $87M contract.

Apr 4

We've made it through the first offseason and made a handful of moves that should help us be a little more consistent, if nothing else. Starting with the 2015 season, I'll be moving things along a little more quickly, simming the entire season in one post instead of doing it month by month. Stay tuned as I work to get this franchise turned around.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

The Astros Process: 2014 Offseason Planning and Preview

Sorry for the long delay. No one cares why, so let's just get into it.

I managed to not lose 100 games, but there's still a lot of work to be done to turn this franchise around. Let's look at our strengths and weaknesses and figure out what to prioritize this offseason.

Catcher looks good, with Castro putting up a decent 2.0 WAR season last year. He'll get a salary bump in arbitration next year but should still be a good value. Max Stassi is a promising young backup and at league minimum salary that's more than enough.

In the infield, Chris Carter as 1B/DH had what could likely have been a career year. With Singleton poised to take over, I'll see if I can flip Carter for something more useful. Either way, Singleton will start the season as the first baseman.

Altuve had a down year, but as cheap and young as he is I'm not looking to make a move at second unless it's a no-brainer deal. Behind him, Fontana or Ronald Torreyes could be ready by the end of the 2015 season.

At short, Villar had a great year, totalling 3.5 WAR in his first full season. Correa has also made his way to AAA already, so SS is not a worry heading into the year.

Dominguez struggled at 3B as he saw a big drop in power drive his offense into the toilet and his glove only brought him back up to replacement level. Matt Duffy is the closest thing to ready behind Dominguez, so I'll likely see if I can improve the situation at third. Probably not a drastic move, as I'd be willing to have Dominguez hold down the fort until Rio Ruiz looks ready in a couple years, but if the opportunity comes up I'll jump at it. Of course, Martin Prado is an option here, as well.

For reserve infielders, Guzman is gone. I will not be offering arbitration. Marwin Gonzalez will be retained as his multi-positional flexibility allows him to back-up multiple positions for just one salary.

In the outfield, Dexter Fowler will definitely be back. Springer will be given a shot to show he's capable of adjusting and performing at the major league level, but I'm honestly a bit scared he'll be a bust at this point. Grossman will probably head into the 2015 season as the starting LF, but at some point in the year Domingo Santana, Andrew Aplin, Preston Tucker, Austin Wates, and LJ Hoes will be looking to rotate through the outfield in Houston as well. Alex Presley will not be offered arbitration as I feel I can replace his production through one of the above named prospects. I'll see if I can get a lottery ticket back in trade before I cut him loose, though. Again, Prado could factor in here somewhere.

On the mound, the rotation for 2015 so far has Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, and...um...hmm. Cosart was hurt a good bit of the year, though he did return before the season ended, so I think he'll be ready to go. Feldman will be back in time for spring training, so he's in, too. And Oberholzter also ended the year on the disabled list. If push comes to shove, I'll go with those five and hope for my young AAA arms to be capable of filling in during the year. Rudy Owens showed some promise and I still have Peacock in addition to Alex White, not to mention Folty, Appel, and Tropeano knocking on the door.

The bullpen looks to be in good shape, as Knebel, Qualls, Fields, Chapman, and Albers should form a solid core for me to tinker around.

So, it looks like I'll be focusing on a backup infielder who can play some 1B in case Singleton flops. Possibly a veteran backup outfielder just to add some stability to the young group; maybe someone I can trade in July if the kids take over in Houston. It feels weird to just be working in the margins on a team that performed this poorly, but I guess we'll have another year to see which of the young kids can step up and prove they belong in Houston.


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