Wednesday, July 16, 2014

The Astros Process: 2014 Offseason Planning and Preview

Sorry for the long delay. No one cares why, so let's just get into it.

I managed to not lose 100 games, but there's still a lot of work to be done to turn this franchise around. Let's look at our strengths and weaknesses and figure out what to prioritize this offseason.

Catcher looks good, with Castro putting up a decent 2.0 WAR season last year. He'll get a salary bump in arbitration next year but should still be a good value. Max Stassi is a promising young backup and at league minimum salary that's more than enough.

In the infield, Chris Carter as 1B/DH had what could likely have been a career year. With Singleton poised to take over, I'll see if I can flip Carter for something more useful. Either way, Singleton will start the season as the first baseman.

Altuve had a down year, but as cheap and young as he is I'm not looking to make a move at second unless it's a no-brainer deal. Behind him, Fontana or Ronald Torreyes could be ready by the end of the 2015 season.

At short, Villar had a great year, totalling 3.5 WAR in his first full season. Correa has also made his way to AAA already, so SS is not a worry heading into the year.

Dominguez struggled at 3B as he saw a big drop in power drive his offense into the toilet and his glove only brought him back up to replacement level. Matt Duffy is the closest thing to ready behind Dominguez, so I'll likely see if I can improve the situation at third. Probably not a drastic move, as I'd be willing to have Dominguez hold down the fort until Rio Ruiz looks ready in a couple years, but if the opportunity comes up I'll jump at it. Of course, Martin Prado is an option here, as well.

For reserve infielders, Guzman is gone. I will not be offering arbitration. Marwin Gonzalez will be retained as his multi-positional flexibility allows him to back-up multiple positions for just one salary.

In the outfield, Dexter Fowler will definitely be back. Springer will be given a shot to show he's capable of adjusting and performing at the major league level, but I'm honestly a bit scared he'll be a bust at this point. Grossman will probably head into the 2015 season as the starting LF, but at some point in the year Domingo Santana, Andrew Aplin, Preston Tucker, Austin Wates, and LJ Hoes will be looking to rotate through the outfield in Houston as well. Alex Presley will not be offered arbitration as I feel I can replace his production through one of the above named prospects. I'll see if I can get a lottery ticket back in trade before I cut him loose, though. Again, Prado could factor in here somewhere.

On the mound, the rotation for 2015 so far has Lucas Harrell, Dallas Keuchel, and...um...hmm. Cosart was hurt a good bit of the year, though he did return before the season ended, so I think he'll be ready to go. Feldman will be back in time for spring training, so he's in, too. And Oberholzter also ended the year on the disabled list. If push comes to shove, I'll go with those five and hope for my young AAA arms to be capable of filling in during the year. Rudy Owens showed some promise and I still have Peacock in addition to Alex White, not to mention Folty, Appel, and Tropeano knocking on the door.

The bullpen looks to be in good shape, as Knebel, Qualls, Fields, Chapman, and Albers should form a solid core for me to tinker around.

So, it looks like I'll be focusing on a backup infielder who can play some 1B in case Singleton flops. Possibly a veteran backup outfielder just to add some stability to the young group; maybe someone I can trade in July if the kids take over in Houston. It feels weird to just be working in the margins on a team that performed this poorly, but I guess we'll have another year to see which of the young kids can step up and prove they belong in Houston.


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